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After over 10 years of experience in international real estate companies, we have gained a comprehensive track record in investment transactions ranging from one to hundreds of millions of Euros.

Our clients include specialized real estate companies as well as wealthy private individuals. These are typically successful entrepreneurs, artists, professional athletes whose primary business is not real estate, though they increase their savings by investing into real estate.

Acquisitions and disposals usually require a large amount of time, funds and experience from all parties involved.

Success is not attained just by coincidence, rather it is the product of detailed knowledge, a clear strategy and most importantly patient realization.

Thanks to our long-standing presence in the international real estate market, as well as many successfully closed transactions both during the financial boom and recession, we have gained enough valuable experience to realise the best possible deal for your property and individual needs.

They have not only introduced us the property, but also guided us through the competitive tender process and adviced us through DD.

We were really happy with their services and look forward to working with them on next transactions. We actively source prime, long-term leased commercial real estate in established locations.

We provide complex acquisition services including the coordination of the acquisition process and due diligence, and support in negotiating purchase contracts.

We provide professional services for property owners with the aim to maximize the realized sales price and minimize time spent on the sale.

Taking into consideration the demands of current investors, JKA recommends a suitable sales strategy, including: setting the selling price, preparing the investment memorandum, and presenting the project to suitable investors.

JK Advisory specializes in prime real estate with a long lease to tenants with good covenants in established locations. These attributes minimize the risk of loss of rental income, ensure easy bank financing, and guarantee a stable return thanks to capital value increase and long-term cash flow.

Strategically located industrial or logistics warehouse with a long lease and tenant with a good covenant.

Apartment house in a sought-after residential location. Acquisition as a long-term investment or alternatively for reconstruction and subsequent sale of individual apartments.

Total lettable area 20 sqm, footfall 3 mil. The total lettable area of the properties is 35 sqm. The total lettable area of the properties is 16 sqm.

Anchor tenants are Ahold and Obi. The total lettable area of the property is 8 sqm. The total lettable area of the properties is 25, sqm.

The total lettable area of the properties is 9, sqm, out of which 7, sqm was occupied by Tesco. The total lettable area of the property is 6, sqm.

Volume: approx. Volume: over 10 mil. The size of the portfolio exceeded 12 sqm. Volume: over 50 mil.

The property was sold through competitive tender process with the seller being Avestus. Volume: cca. Total lettable area was 5 sqm. Volume: exceeded 30 mil.

Volume: EUR 1. Investor: Private investors CR Advisory on purchase, co-investment and asset management of a supermarket unit in Prague.

Volume: not disclosed Investor: Private investors CR, RU Purchase of Prague's landmark property Slovansky dum, with 22 sqm of prime retail and office space, located on the town's most expensive street Na Prikope.

A long lease to an international fashion chain. A long lease to a fast food operator. We are happy that JKA guided us through it and helped us decide on most of the difficult aspects of this acquisition.

E: zdenek jk-advisory. About Us. The current yield level for prime premises in Helsinki CBD is about 5.

Building Activity New office space is constructed and new projects are planned regardless of the office vacancy rate. Construction companies are responsible for most new projects.

During about 80, m2 were completed in the HMA and a further 61, m2 were under construction. In a total of around 80, m2 of office space is expected to come onto the market.

At the end of the year consumers predicted that consumer prices would go up by 3. The two largest chains, S-Group and K-Group, account for The situation of a few big players dominating the market is similar in the other Nordic countries.

According to the new law, shops with more than m2 of retail area may trade between midday and 6 p. Shops with less than m2 have free opening hours.

The expansion of the Sunday opening hours has already boosted the sales of consumer goods. Supply The retail stock in the major Finnish cities comprises approximately 6.

For a long time, large stores have played a significant role in the Finnish grocery trade. The structural change is influenced by migration to growth centres and the increased use of cars as well as the change in consumer demand that leads to a more extensive selection of goods.

According to the Land Use and Building Act, a large-scale retail unit is a store larger than 2, m2, which in practice equals a store with a sales area of about 1, m2.

This is extended to include speciality stores that require a lot of retail space, such as a furniture store or a car showroom.

The focus now seems to be on the refurbishment and extension of existing centres and on new mixed-use concepts that combine retail, residential and services.

However, new construction also seems to be gradually beginning to recover from the low figures of the last two years. For example the Finnish retailer Kesko Group is planning to develop many new retail projects in the near future.

Karisto in Lahti, with a lettable area of 34, m2, will be opened before Christmas , and a new shopping centre in the Tervaskangas area in the city of Kouvola, with a lettable area of about 48, m2, is expected to be completed in Most of the decrease has been due to strong demand for core targets and to better access to financing.

N Even though the investment market was quite slow in , some transactions have still taken place and not only in the Helsinki area. For example, the insurance company Tapiola Pension purchased Phases 2 and 3 of the Chydenia shopping centre in Kokkola in western Finland.

Some restructuring of ownership also took place. The purpose of the company is to own, manage and develop properties and other assets.

The total transaction price was about EUR million. At the same time, Kesko Plc also sold two properties to Ilmarinen. There are likely to be some shop closings and increased relocation by hard-pressed retailers, which will further affect the vacancy levels.

Rent levels did not suffer much during the recession in — The strong consumer confidence and the growth in sales volumes now indicate that there is going to be a moderate rent increase in Transaction activity in Norway is back again, after large fluctuations in recent years.

In , the volume revived to NOK 35 billion, and we expect at least the same level for Both sellers and buyers seem to accept the current market values and the transaction processes are running more smoothly.

The Norwegian economy has turned around since the financial crisis and is showing a healthy growth. This was the first negative growth in GDP since Now the expansion of the economy is continuing at a moderate pace and seems to have gained a firm footing.

Much of the growth in GDP is because of high public and private consumption. Public consumption increased by 4. Gross fixed investment decreased in Rent levels have not yet recovered from the fall during the financial crisis, but they stabilised during In rents in most of the rental market remained almost unchanged and only the CBD experienced moderate growth.

We expect rent levels to increase in the most attractive segments of the office and retail markets this year. In foreign investors and especially syndicates were active buyers.

NIAM was the most active with its acquisition of Sektor. We expect both foreign and domestic investors of all types to be buying in In Newsec expects CBD offices in Oslo, central offices in Stavanger and retail premises to give the highest returns.

Most of the growth will be due to private consumption. Gross fixed investment will also rise. Most of this rise will result from higher investments in the oil and gas sector and in companies in general.

Employment was fairly stable during Unemployment is now 3. Productivity decreased during the economic downturn, but has now picked up again.

The unemployment rate is forecast to decrease by 0. The twelve-month rise in the Consumer Prices Index was 2. Newsec expects inflation to decrease during the first half of due to the low capacity utilisation in combination with moderate wage increases.

Interest Rate Forecast During — the Norwegian central bank reduced its key policy interest rate to an all-time low of 1.

However, since then. However, the increase in the key policy interest rate will be moved to a later date compared with earlier analyses.

This is mainly because of lower activity among our trading partners. Newsec expects the key policy rate to be 2. Another positive sign is that investors of almost every kind have returned to the market.

Even though syndicates have been the most active, Newsec has also seen property funds, foreign investors, private investors and pension funds participating in trades.

CBD when they are developed. The area around the government offices is another traditional and popular office area.

So far the majority of transactions have concerned properties with long rental contracts and solid tenants. Newsec expects that properties with shorter rental contracts will also be traded during the coming years.

The Norwegian interbank interest rate, NIBOR, has decreased substantially since the peak and is expected to follow the steering rate upwards in coming years.

Newsec expects inflation to remain low during —, thus moderating the increases in short-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates are expected to increase during — due to expectations of future GDP growth.

The combined value of these two transactions is NOK 7. The sluggish investment market came to an end in In property turnover was NOK 14 billion.

Oslo is the capital and largest city in Norway with , inhabitants in the city itself and about a million in the Greater Oslo area.

The total office stock is approximately 8. The office vacancy rate is a result of demand and supply. In the last two years demand has been reduced compared with the years.

In the coming years Newsec expects an increasing demand for offices, stimulated mainly by expanding companies. Newsec expects the yearly demand for offices to be around , m2 in the next few years.

The supply side will fluctuate during the same period. This year approximately 50, m2 will be completed, but in there will be around , m2 of new office premises completed.

By the end of Newsec believes the office vacancy rate will be reduced to 7. The vast completion of office premises in will then have an impact on the office vacancy rate in , and Newsec believes that vacancy will increase to 8.

After that Newsec expects the vacancy rate to decline moderately. Office Rents The reduced uptake of office premises in recent years, coupled with an increased supply, resulted in falling market rents in all Oslo office segments.

However, rents have now stabilised and a turnaround is expected in , when rents are forecast to start increasing again. The signs are already clear in Oslo CBD, where rents have risen two quarters in a row.

The rise is not huge but substantial. When rents start to rise in the CBD, the rents in the other subsectors will probably rise one or two quarters afterwards.

Office Yields Office yields have continued the downward trend which started in late The trend is largely due to a big yield gap, the improved credit market and increasing competition between banks.

The prime. Newsec expects yields to continue decreasing during — in all office submarkets. New apartments, several museums and the Opera, which is already completed, will also go to shape an exciting and diverse part of the city in the near future.

Fornebu is another district with a lot of building activity, with plans for another 90, m2 of office premises.

In the second half of prices increased slightly. In the prices have continued to rise, but are still well below prices. Newsec expects construction costs to increase rapidly when the market turns, which may be as soon as this year.

Stavanger Office Market Stavanger is situated on the southwest coast of Norway, and the region is one of the fastest-growing in Norway.

The Stavanger region is the centre for the Norwegian oil and natural gas industry, and most of the Norwegian oil companies have their head offices here.

The district is known for innovative and value-generating business activities. The infrastructure is well developed, with railways, airport and harbour.

The high activity of recent years has created a greatly expanded demand for office premises, which resulted in low vacancy and increased market rents.

There is a low volume of new buildings under construction, and this may put some pressure on rent levels.

However, there are a large number of projects approved which can be started when the market conditions are right.

Newsec believes that market rents will increase slightly throughout and continue upwards in In a rising vacancy rate and an increased number of sublet premises resulted in falling market rents.

The rents stabilised in and Newsec expects market rents to remain fairly stable throughout Newsec has seen recent transactions in Bergen with low initial yields, and estimates prime office yields to be around 6.

Bergen, situated on the west coast, is the second-largest city in Norway. The Greater Bergen region has more than , inhabitants, and population growth is above the national average.

Activity on the investment market has increased and Newsec has seen transactions indicating that yields have decreased during the last 6—12 months.

Based on a prime office yield in Oslo of 5. Bergen is surrounded by sea and mountains, resulting in a limited amount of land available in the downtown area.

To expand the city, a new light railway is being built, whose first section, heading south from downtown Bergen, opened last June.

The area around the railway has become an attractive location for commercial real estate. Due to the combination of workforce reductions and an increased focus on space-efficient office premises, the vacancy rate has increased.

The office vacancy in Bergen is currently 6. Private Consumption and Retail Turnover Consumer confidence in Norway was high during the first seven years of the s, but the economic slowdown and subsequent rise in unemployment created pessimism in the market in and early However, consumer confidence improved again during the second half of and in as a result of the economic recovery.

The disposable income of Norwegian households increased during due to wage increases and low interest rates. In addition, the vast majority of the households that own their homes have floating-rate loans.

In private consumption grew by approximately 3. This rising private consumption is having a positive effect on retail turnover-rents, which are expected to increase during A regulation concerning shopping centres came into effect in July It decrees that new shopping centres larger than 3, m2 4, m2 in Oslo must be located near public transport hubs or in city centres unless regional zoning plans have already approved larger floor space.

The intention is, among other things, to strengthen existing city centres and reduce pollution by limiting traffic. The legislation puts additional downward pressure on the development pipeline, but it may also stimulate further development of high-street retailing in city centres, which happened when a similar law was imposed in Denmark.

Nevertheless there are plans for a new shopping centre and the expansion of existing centres. The project also includes a kindergarten, private residences, offices, water park, cultural centre, restaurants, library, museum and health services.

Supply Norway has one of the largest per capita levels of retail space in the world. In twenty years, the floor space in Norwegian shopping centres has quadrupled, and today more than one third of all Norwegian retail trade takes place in shopping centres.

It is expected that the level of new developments will fall back in coming years as a consequence of the relatively saturated market.

Approximately 20, m2 of new retail stores will be added to the existing centre. In the second half of some other retail properties were sold.

The transaction yield for Coop Obs! Grensen 13 in Oslo prime retail was also sold at a yield of 5. Based on the transactions that took place during the last quarter of , yields for prime retail properties are currently 5.

Rental Market Rent levels for retail premises are mainly turnover-based. They have followed the pattern of private consumption, falling slightly in and the first part of and stabilising in late and Newsec saw small increases in market rents in late as private consumption grew by about 3.

We expect that rents will continue to rise during Shopping centres have historically had the most stable rent levels, and Newsec expects this to continue.

However, the more centrally a shopping centre is located, the more attractive the premises, the lower the vacancy rates and the higher the rental levels.

Newsec has noted that there are longer void periods in less centrally located shopping centres. As financial markets gradually improved in the second half of , a number of market players entered with great expectations: a backlog of property transactions had been building up in the wake of multiple bankruptcies across all Danish property segments in and However, there may still be several challenges looming ahead, and the recovery process is therefore likely to remain slow and cautious.

However, transaction activity in property investments turned out to be highly segmented, with the general consensus being that Copenhagen is the most important investment property market by far.

Danish GDP picked up in , with 3. For the increase in GDP to continue, other prerequisites of growth are needed, such as sustained growth in exports or stronger consumer spending, which.

Active market players are in pursuit of secure cash flows in particular. In Denmark the current outlook gives us reason to believe that the economic recession is definitely over, but economic growth continues to be slow and tenuous.

For this reason we expect vacancy rates and rent levels to stabilise in the near future. Nichlas SArlin nichlas.

Several years of positive growth in consumer spending ended with a 0. However, the fact that real wages kept increasing in and , coupled with all-time-low interest rates and the effect of new tax cuts introduced in , should be prompting renewed spending.

Consumer spending is expected to have increased by 2. Danish unemployment rates have been very low for several years, hitting a record-low of 1.

This is far below the level normally defining structural unemployment. But unemployment started to rise rapidly at the end of and particularly at the beginning of The unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.

Overall, interest rates remain historically low, but this is bound to change. With the Danish economy recovering only slowly, however, interest rates will not start to increase until economic growth has been restored.

Interest rates are therefore projected to remain flat for most of , followed by an increase in Investment Market In and the beginning of , the Copenhagen office investment market slowed.

The financial crisis drove liquidity out of the market, and due to high loan margins and strict equity requirements investors found it difficult to procure financing.

Nevertheless, the second half of witnessed renewed investor interest in the property investment market. Low returns on liquid assets make the office property investment market more interesting to investors because of the higher returns and still fairly low risk it offers.

Investment demand is still fronted by financially strong investors such as institutional investors and well-consolidated property companies who can match the equity ratios required by finance.

Interest Rate Forecast Ever since the financial crisis started in , prompting a worldwide economic downturn, interest rates have been very low.

Shortterm interest rates dropped immediately at the onset of the crisis, and once the market realised the severity of the financial crisis, the long-term interest rates followed suit.

Because the Danish krone is pegged to the euro, the yield levels of both three-month interest rates and Danish year government bonds tend to follow those of the euro interest rates quite closely.

In , the yields on Danish year government bonds declined more than the yields on comparable euro bonds.

The uncertain future of EU countries like Greece and Spain, both struggling with massive public deficits, has made investors seek out safe-haven countries, for instance Germany and the Nordic countries.

However, it seems that finance providers have somewhat eased requirements, which may open up the market to a wider range of investors.

Properties situated in the Copenhagen CBD command the highest office rents, with waterfront locations in particular seeing top rent levels.

The total office stock in the Copenhagen area amounts to some 11 million m2, including about 5 million m2 in the CBD.

This represents a surge of more than 7 percentage points above the low of 3. Companies have tried to cut costs by means of layoffs, which has driven up unemployment and reduced the need for office space.

However, the office vacancy rate is believed to have peaked and is forecast to fall again in Rents Due to the increase in office vacancies, Copenhagen office rent levels came under downward pressure in However, it seems that the earlier reductions made from to sufficed to sustain demand.

As a result, rent levels remained fairly stable in and may even start to rise once economic growth is restored.

Because of the tentative outlook for the Danish economy, however, it is difficult to predict when rent levels will pick up.

Once demand for offices recovers, prime office locations in particular are likely to be coveted and will see an increase in rent levels before secondary locations.

Yields Prime office yields have been fairly stable for the past 12 months and currently stand at 5. However, changing market conditions have served to widen the gap between prime yields Office Yield.

Building Activity Building activity has slowed down dramatically, mainly because the traditional finance providers required higher equity ratios, forcing.

At the same time, climbing vacancy rates and declining rent levels are making new development projects less profitable.

There are several other projects in the pipeline, but most will not be initiated until a significant proportion of the lease premises has been pre-let.

Private Consumption and Retail Turnover Several years of positive growth in private consumption ended in with a 0. Continuing downward throughout , year-on-year growth hit a low of A sharp drop in housing prices from late to mid eroded the wealth of Danish consumers and naturally curbed private consumption.

As a result, typical consumer patterns and mentality changed, motivating an increase in private savings, which reduced the level of spending even further.

At the same time, saw a relatively high inflation rate, on food and oil prices in particular, which put additional strain on Danish households.

Nevertheless, Danish households have run up debts, and as interest rates will go up at some point in the future, they will be forced to cut budgets, which will inevitably curb private consumption.

Retail sales are closely related to private consumption and the falls in and are therefore a natural consequence of the drop in private consumption.

Despite the subsequent implementation of an expansive fiscal policy and mounting consumer confidence, the weak trend in retail sales seems likely to continue due to an increased savings ratio.

The Danish retail market is characterised by tight legislation, regulating both the size and location of retail areas.

As a result, Denmark has a predominance of high-street or in-town shops and relatively few out-of-town shopping centres and retail parks.

The total retail stock in Denmark amounts to some However, one ongoing retail development project is the Flintholm Convenience Shopping.

Centre, scheduled for opening in Apart from a couple of other projects, however, the pipeline has virtually dried up and the supply of retail space is therefore projected to remain nearly constant in the next few years.

However, the turbulence on the financial markets in tandem with the global recession drove up yields to a high of 5.

A further decline in yields is predicted in due to the gradually thawing credit market and the projected real economic recovery.

Until , the Danish retail property investment market was dominated by private investors, in particular tax-driven and highleverage limited partnerships.

However, the turbulence in the financial markets largely drove these investors out of the market. The domestic pension funds remain major players in the retail segment, primarily targeting large shopping centres.

International investors have traditionally been important players in the Copenhagen retail investment market, but they too pulled out in the wake of the financial turmoil in early Today, lower property.

However, in step with the economic downturn, demand for retail space weakened, and as a result the number of retail vacancies went up, especially in secondary locations such as out-of-town retail locations and in streets off the high street.

Many local shopping centres have witnessed an increasing vacancy rate whereas major regional shopping centres have been able to maintain relatively low vacancy, mainly because most of their units are leased by retail chains, which have generally remained financially strong despite the crisis.

Retail vacancy rates in the Copenhagen CBD have remained fairly stable because financially strong retail chains have leveraged on the current market conditions to secure high-profile locations at fairly low prices.

In addition, rent renegotiations have become fairly commonplace, causing a slight decline in retail rent levels in However, the modest supply drove up rents again in High-street rents are projected to remain relatively stable in the next 12 to 24 months owing to the lack of new development possibilities and an anticipated increase in demand.

Positive processes in the Estonian economy and expectations related to the adoption of the euro have given the real-estate market an impulse towards stabilisation.

Transaction activity has begun to show a moderate increase, especially in the residential sector. This has encouraged local developers to start a number of new projects.

A few new retail projects were successfully begun during ; in general the retail property sector has remained less touched by the crisis despite a decline in private consumption, and is expected to demonstrate a moderate increase in prime rents for In the second half of a stabilisation process in the office property segment began: vacancies have started to decrease and rents have stopped falling.

Slight rises in rents for quality office premises in good locations may occur in The warehouse and industrial property segment has suffered the worst, but the situation is expected to improve towards the end of In the second half of the change in GDP turned to positive and exports and imports both started to increase, supported by the improving economic situation in the Euro Zone.

In the third quarter of the unemployment rate stopped rising, although long-term unemployment is still going up. Investment activity demonstrated signs of revival in Most acquisitions were related to office properties and made by local investors buying distressed assets.

The most stable cash flow will be produced by retail assets, which will probably attract more attention from investors in The situation in the labour market will stabilise, but with no significant improvements until The situation on the international financial market has started to improve, although it is still jeopardised by the complicated financial positions of some South European countries.

The margins of Estonian commercial banks are not showing a downward tendency and will probably remain unchanged in the first half of , not starting to decline before the second half of the year.

Interest in Estonian Interest Rates. Rising debt remained a challenge in and no significant improvement in this field is expected in Nevertheless market stabilisation started in and adopting the euro may attract some international players in No new office development projects were initiated during and several projects announced earlier were postponed due to lack of potential tenants.

At the end of the total office stock in Tallinn was about , m2, or 1. The investment market situation in was not much different from The number of transactions closed for retail properties during was small.

Prime asking yields were at a level of 8. Future development of yields depends on the dynamics of rents and vacancy rates and improvement of the lending situation.

Because of continued downsizing and cost-cutting by business, demand for office space did not increase in The market will be absorbing the existing office supply; as a result vacancy in welllocated high-quality premises will decrease at the expense of lowquality office premises.

Rents Rental levels continued to decline in the first half of , followed by some stabilisation in the second half of the year.

Rents are currently under pressure mainly in the amortised office buildings. No significant changes in rents are expected in Vacancy Rate Percent.

Building Activity No new development is planned for Developers are waiting for existing vacancies to be absorbed and rents to start rising.

Another problem is the lack of debt financing for office development projects. Continuing low construction costs may favour built-to-suit projects.

The situation in the Latvian economy is gradually stabilising after the deepest recession since the country gained independence in However, recovery will be uneven for different sectors.

The main activity in various branches of industry is created by export growth. After double-digit economic growth in —, Latvia was hit by the global financial and economic crisis.

However, the economy has shown signs of recovery in The Latvian economy recorded three consecutive periods of quarter-on-quarter growth and technically went out of recession.

In annualised terms, output is recovering at a faster pace than previously expected, although the growth rate in and will remain significantly below pre-crisis levels and the unemployment rate will stay in the double-digit zone for years ahead.

Banks expect a further deterioration in the quality of their loan portfolio, which makes them very cautious in taking on new risks.

This, in turn, will not stimulate the real estate market. Several speculative and built-to-suit developments were finished in but there are no plans for new property completion in At the same time, changes in tax policy in will continue to stimulate the shadow economy, whose share has increased considerably in — Due to the impact of the global financial crisis, foreign capital flows into the economy of Latvia have decreased significantly.

Major investors now are from Estonia, Sweden, Denmark and Germany, and Russian investors have also started to show interest.

Investments in the services sector accounted for the largest share of FDI stock in With the economy in the neighbouring Russia already recovering, investors from that country could become more active in Latvia in the future.

Natalja Pirozenko n. As in the other Baltic economies, exports have been central to the recovery in economic activity.

Industrial production is also recovering gradually. However, different situations in different industries means that recovery will continue to be uneven.

The consumer recovery remains more tentative but has the potential to accelerate. Economic Indicators. Retail sales growth in year-on-year terms has shown a positive tendency.

However, total private spending keeps shrinking — although more slowly than before — and is unlikely to improve in the next few quarters.

It will also be influenced by wage cuts and tax changes. Investment Market The peak in institutional investment volumes in real estate was achieved in The volume fell during and there were almost no transactions during — Real estate financing has been frozen since , leaving room for cash buyers only.

Riga Office Market Riga remains the centre of office property development in Latvia. Modern office stock per capita in Riga stands at around 0.

Offices in Riga are concentrated in the city centre and the Old Town, but with a growing tendency to move away from the centre to new office-building areas with better access to roads and available parking spaces.

In general, only small activity was observed in the office market during The main demand in Riga is for office premises of less than m2 from finance, law, consulting and transport and logistics companies.

The majority of new leases are tenant relocations. The only new tenant on the market was Cytec Industries which rented 1, m2 in Europe Business Center.

Vacancy Rates Vacancy rates vary between different properties. No major changes are expected in — During the next two years rents are expected to increase slightly.

Yields Foreign investors have tended to overlook the Riga market since mid However, there were no major deals in In the future, yields are expected to fall as real economic recovery develops.

Many development projects were frozen in — and are still not expected to start again in Infrastructure investments currently dominate the sector.

Export-driven and domestic-demand-driven industries both stabilised in , although the latter stabilised rather later and some of the domestic-demand-driven industries are still struggling.

The forecast decrease in the unemployment rate and increase in private consumption will affect the economy positively — including the real estate market.

However, many real estate development plans were either suspended or cancelled, with only a few completions in Most attractive new projects are largely pre-let or have firm reservations in place, whereas speculative projects are not attractive to developers and are unlikely to be financed by the banks.

The quality of projects has become a more important factor in the market. Thus high-quality projects are in a stronger position in terms of pricing and vacancy management than projects of perceived lower quality.

In , investment activity was mainly driven by local investors, as international investors simply observed the market. Hence, only a few small transactions were performed in the Lithuanian market.

Macroeconomic Forecast The second and third quarters of proved more positive than the corresponding quarters of , which supports the general forecast of around 0.

However, increasing prices for energy and fuel will add to inflationary pressures, with inflation forecast at. This might be an important issue for a successful introduction of the euro, expected in Furthermore, lending activity for individuals and companies started to improve.

Investment Market The total transaction volume in was around EUR 20 million, with only a few domestic transactions taking place. The situation in and is expected to improve due to the better economic environment combined with attractive property pricing, which may attract more international investors.

Vilnius Office Market The Vilnius office market in has seen three new office buildings with a total area of 30, m2 opened, and two new office buildings with a planned area of 20, m2 were started.

At the end of the stock of modern offices in Vilnius amounted to approximately , m2 or 0. Yields In the investment market was driven by transactions performed by local investors, but international investors are now re-.

Yields in the market in stood at 8. These levels are ex-. Building Activity There are currently two projects — Pirkliu klubas and Baltic Hearts — under development in the Vilnius office market, with a combined area of about 20, m2.

Most of the active developers are currently pre-letting their planned office buildings and will not start or complete the construction until an acceptable level of pre-letting has been reached.

This is in line with stricter bank financing conditions for new developments. Private Consumption and Retail Turnover In private consumption and disposable income stabilised after falling in Although unemployment is still at very high levels in all three Baltic countries, the levels are not now expected to move upward and are forecast to decrease during A stabilisation of retail turnover was evident in the market in , and some retailers even reported a modest growth of turnover.

The development of the Tähesaju shopping area , m2 in Tallinn is in progress. Vicus, a Finnish company, together with its Lithuanian partner, plans to open the 22,—28, m2 Olinda shopping centre in Northern Vilnius.

No other projects, either planned earlier or completely new, are expected to enter the market until — Most of the local retail chains expect the retail market to recover in early in major cities and in mid in smaller towns.

Some of the major retail chains e. IKI, Prisma have renewed their expansion in by opening new stores. Rimi, another large.

No significant retail property investment transactions were made in the Baltic countries in A few small supermarkets have been sold to private investors in Estonia, the total investment volume comprising about EUR 10 million.

The absence of larger. Supply All the Baltic countries have further increased their per capita areas of shopping centre space above the average level for the 27 EU countries EU All three countries are close to the levels of France and the UK, and Estonia is already in line with the Scandinavian countries.

However, the figures were influenced more by a reduction of population, as people left for better prospects abroad, than by the actual construction of new shopping areas.

Around , m2 of shopping centre and retail park projects in the region were cancelled in and not revived.

The largest project opened in the Baltics in was Galleria Riga 41, m2 ,. In , banks started lending for sustainable projects. Rental Market Private local and Nordic investors are expected to dominate the Baltic market in The exception could be Estonia, which after adopting the euro in January may start to attract larger.

Lower-quality centres, which had problems even during. In , a stabilisation of rentals was observed in the market.

Turnover-based rent and step-rent structures became common in the market, especially for new tenants. Growth is fuelled by rapid technological development enabling large-scale energy production at a competitive cost per produced kWh.

Wind power is also a renewable form of energy, capable over time of reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Electricity is a Nordic market and most trades are done via the Nord Pool exchange.

However, the financial turmoil has brought a slower development. Key drivers for price development during the coming years will be energy consumption, commodity prices and prices for carbon emission rights.

Economic recovery will bring increased consumption again, and together with increased global commodity prices and political initiatives concerning carbon emission rights this could put renewed upward pressure on Nordic prices.

However, new production capacity, for example from wind power, could counteract this, while further integration with other European markets via new cables could provide opportunities for export of carbon-free energy to countries with higher electricity prices and more difficult preconditions for such production.

Swedish wind power is still a very young and rapidly growing market. Examples of more mature countries include Germany with over 17 times as much installed capacity and Spain with over 12 times.

The growth and profitability of Swedish wind power drives an increasingly active transaction market attracting utilities, independent power producers, developers, energy-intense industry, financial players and also real estate companies.

Investor returns are primarily driven by five key parameters: 1. Electricity prices 2. Certificate prices 3.

Turbine prices 4. Debt market prerequisites. Electricity certificate prices The electricity certificate market is created in order to provide the necessary means to reach growth targets for renewable-energy production.

Supply on the market is determined by the amount of renewable-energy production entitling producers to compensation via electricity certificates, and by the number of electricity certificates that the sellers choose to save.

Demand is determined by the statutory quota obligation and the total electricity consumption. In December it was decided to form a joint certificate market between Sweden and Norway by which the two countries will jointly finance ambitious growth plans for renewable energy.

The two countries will construct The system is a logical step in the ambitions to create a more integrated Nordic energy market.

Expected implications of the new system include improved prerequisites for hydro power in Norway, for bio power in Sweden and for wind power in both Sweden and Norway.

For Swedish wind power, the main benefit is improved liquidity in the electricity certificate market. In , overcapacity among turbine manufacturers created an oversupply of 4—6 GW.

In addition, delivery times have fallen from 2—3 years to a couple of months. Intensified competition among turbine manufacturers and continued technological development bringing lower costs per produced kWh should be of benefit to wind farm developers during Debt market prerequisites During , banks had an intense period of structural change during which business plans and risk taking were analysed.

However, most of the leading banks have kept their renewable-energy teams and now expect to increase lending.

During the latter half of tenors have increased to approximately 15 years and debt-spread to approximately basis points above STIBOR.

Increased willingness and competence among the Nordic banks as well as the increased presence of international banks should bring improved preconditions for project finance during The investment market There were very few public transactions during the later part of In , new entrants are expected in the form of new international players expanding from other European markets to Sweden, as well as new Nordic investors who plan to make their first investment in this sector.

When completed in Blaiken will have an installed capacity of MW. The project size has decreased significantly as opponents claiming damage to environmental and other interests were successful in their appeals against the project.

Statkraft is likely to continue to focus on the development of these wind farms during the first half of International banks further increased market presence via this deal since Commerzbank is providing year project finance.

International equity and debt investors are likely to continue to increase their presence on the Nordic wind power markets.

Up to now financial investors and energy-intense industry have continued take the initiative while the large utilities have been focused on development of their own pipeline or projects acquired earlier.

Newsec believes in continued high growth in Swedish wind power during and an increased number of transactions. Transactions and greenfield investments are expected to lay the foundation for new Nordic, rather than Swedish, wind power companies.

Vattenfall has focused on the commissioning and takeover of the Storrotliden wind farm which was acquired from O2 in Finland, which is introducing a feed-in tariff for wind-generated electricity, could also become an interesting and potentially more integrated transaction market.

The more information and the better analytical tools you have access to, the less uncertainty in every transaction or valuation you carry out.

Datscha is a successful information source and analytical tool covering the Swedish and Finnish commercial property markets.

It is both user-friendly and advanced at the same time. This provides a smart and quick analysis which helps you make the right decisions.

Datscha is a company in the Stronghold Group. Lilla Bommen 5 P. Finland Mannerheiminaukio 1 A P. Norway Oslo Filipstad Brygge 1 P. Lithuania Vilnius Saltoniskiu str.

Norway: only shopping centres. Finland: all retail premises in the three major cities. In Finland the size is in the range — m2.

We offer a comprehensive range of services in the business areas of Advice, Asset Management and Transactions to property owners, investors and occupiers of premises Our prime market is Northern Europe.

Newsec expects property prices to keep on increasing in as the economic recovery continues. The purpose of latest survey of the Northern European property market.

Slow economic growth in the developed world 2 2. Low inflationary pressure generating low interest rates 4. In Finland the investment market was quite slow in , some transactions have still taken place Oslo E Helsinki Copenhagen E and not only in the Helsinki area.

These problems had to be solved through internal devaluation since the countries northern european region 7 have held on to their fixed exchange rates.

Newsec expects inflation and short-term interest rates throughout the Northern European region to remain low for some years The construction figures in the Nordic region will be relatively low compared to the figures of because the financial turmoil delayed projects that were planned to start during — Although prime properties with long, stable lease agreements have seen the largest increases in price, properties throughout the market are experiencing higher prices.

In Denmark, investment demand is led by financially strong investors such as institutional investors and well-consolidated property companies, Transaction Volumes Nordic Region Billion EUR able to match the equity ratios required by banks.

The market is still dominated by domestic investors and foreign players are still reluctant to enter the Baltic Transaction Volume Quarterly Exchange rate — January Source: Newsec 20 Nordic Region Local currency, billion Recovering yields for properties in most major Nordic cities Total Property Returns Source: Newsec Nordic Region Percent in Local Currencies Source: IPD 20 40 35 15 15 30 25 10 10 20 5 15 10 5 0 5 0 0 Sweden Norway Finland Denmark -5 Q1 Sweden Q2 Q3 Norway Finland Q4 Q1 Denmark Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 E Sweden Norway Finland Denmark northern european region 9 S In the Baltic countries yields have been fairly stable during due to the clear signs of an economic recovery, significantly lower interest rates and a slightly improving credit situation.

In the Baltic coun- 10 northern european region tries prime office vacancies have decreased substantially since the end of due to the low supply of high-quality office premises.

The credit market is improving but banks will 12 sweden remain selective in their lending and interest rate margins will remain at higher levels than before the financial crisis.

There have been a number of large transactions on the Swedish property market in , mainly carried out by domestic municipal The two largest foreign investments in were both made by Norwegian investors.

Stockholm Population 2. Rents Transactions In early the decline in rent levels bottomed out, and the rents have since increased on most office markets as the demand for office premises recovered.

Economic Development 3 1 4 5 7 6 2 Gothenburg is situated on the west coast of Sweden. All business sectors were hit by the global downturn but the effects 16 Gothenburg were most severe in manufacturing industry and especially the car manufacturing industry.

Throughout the hard times we could see that the demand for modern, efficient and flexible office space was still fairly high, as companies are increasingly focusing on premises that can be adjusted to meet Office Rents Q1 Percent Source: Newsec Gothenburg Transactions Compared to the transaction market in Gothenburg, as for the country as a whole, was reactivated in Vacancy Rate Yields Despite slightly increasing office vacancies the rental market was still strong during Contact Anna Rosling Wendt anna.

Third, The commercial residential market The underlying housing demand in the major Swedish cities is growing, and Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö have had an increasing shortage of houses over the past decade — a trend that is expected to continue in coming years.

In regional and smaller growth-oriented cities demand is generally higher than, or in line with, supply, while in small cities and regions 22 sweden Stockholm Percent Source: Newsec In areas with high condominium prices, such as the central parts of Stockholm, Gothenburg and to some extent Malmö, the commercial residential property market is affected by the possibility of converting rental properties to condominiums.

Housing Price Index 1, 1, 1, 70 Cal.

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Total volume exceeded EUR 30 mil. Total volume reached approx. EUR 1. Total volume exceeded EUR 50 mil.

Please contact us with offers for these properties. JK Advisory is a boutique real estate agency. We specialize in finding properties suitable for long-term investments with a low risk factor.

These are primarily commercial real estate with long-term secured income and tenants with good covenant. Jan is a founding partner at JK Advisory and focuses on strategy, client relations, identifying investment opportunities and managing real estate transactions.

Jan has been in the real estate market since , when he started his career in the investment department at King Sturge.

He was responsible for sourcing investment opportunities for local and international investors looking for Czech and Slovak commercial real estate opportunities.

After over 10 years of experience in international real estate companies, we have gained a comprehensive track record in investment transactions ranging from one to hundreds of millions of Euros.

Our clients include specialized real estate companies as well as wealthy private individuals. These are typically successful entrepreneurs, artists, professional athletes whose primary business is not real estate, though they increase their savings by investing into real estate.

Acquisitions and disposals usually require a large amount of time, funds and experience from all parties involved.

Success is not attained just by coincidence, rather it is the product of detailed knowledge, a clear strategy and most importantly patient realization.

Thanks to our long-standing presence in the international real estate market, as well as many successfully closed transactions both during the financial boom and recession, we have gained enough valuable experience to realise the best possible deal for your property and individual needs.

They have not only introduced us the property, but also guided us through the competitive tender process and adviced us through DD.

We were really happy with their services and look forward to working with them on next transactions.

We actively source prime, long-term leased commercial real estate in established locations. We provide complex acquisition services including the coordination of the acquisition process and due diligence, and support in negotiating purchase contracts.

We provide professional services for property owners with the aim to maximize the realized sales price and minimize time spent on the sale.

Taking into consideration the demands of current investors, JKA recommends a suitable sales strategy, including: setting the selling price, preparing the investment memorandum, and presenting the project to suitable investors.

JK Advisory specializes in prime real estate with a long lease to tenants with good covenants in established locations. These attributes minimize the risk of loss of rental income, ensure easy bank financing, and guarantee a stable return thanks to capital value increase and long-term cash flow.

Strategically located industrial or logistics warehouse with a long lease and tenant with a good covenant.

Apartment house in a sought-after residential location. The current yield level for prime premises in Helsinki CBD is about 5.

Building Activity New office space is constructed and new projects are planned regardless of the office vacancy rate.

Construction companies are responsible for most new projects. During about 80, m2 were completed in the HMA and a further 61, m2 were under construction.

In a total of around 80, m2 of office space is expected to come onto the market. At the end of the year consumers predicted that consumer prices would go up by 3.

The two largest chains, S-Group and K-Group, account for The situation of a few big players dominating the market is similar in the other Nordic countries.

According to the new law, shops with more than m2 of retail area may trade between midday and 6 p. Shops with less than m2 have free opening hours.

The expansion of the Sunday opening hours has already boosted the sales of consumer goods. Supply The retail stock in the major Finnish cities comprises approximately 6.

For a long time, large stores have played a significant role in the Finnish grocery trade. The structural change is influenced by migration to growth centres and the increased use of cars as well as the change in consumer demand that leads to a more extensive selection of goods.

According to the Land Use and Building Act, a large-scale retail unit is a store larger than 2, m2, which in practice equals a store with a sales area of about 1, m2.

This is extended to include speciality stores that require a lot of retail space, such as a furniture store or a car showroom. The focus now seems to be on the refurbishment and extension of existing centres and on new mixed-use concepts that combine retail, residential and services.

However, new construction also seems to be gradually beginning to recover from the low figures of the last two years.

For example the Finnish retailer Kesko Group is planning to develop many new retail projects in the near future. Karisto in Lahti, with a lettable area of 34, m2, will be opened before Christmas , and a new shopping centre in the Tervaskangas area in the city of Kouvola, with a lettable area of about 48, m2, is expected to be completed in Most of the decrease has been due to strong demand for core targets and to better access to financing.

N Even though the investment market was quite slow in , some transactions have still taken place and not only in the Helsinki area.

For example, the insurance company Tapiola Pension purchased Phases 2 and 3 of the Chydenia shopping centre in Kokkola in western Finland.

Some restructuring of ownership also took place. The purpose of the company is to own, manage and develop properties and other assets.

The total transaction price was about EUR million. At the same time, Kesko Plc also sold two properties to Ilmarinen.

There are likely to be some shop closings and increased relocation by hard-pressed retailers, which will further affect the vacancy levels.

Rent levels did not suffer much during the recession in — The strong consumer confidence and the growth in sales volumes now indicate that there is going to be a moderate rent increase in Transaction activity in Norway is back again, after large fluctuations in recent years.

In , the volume revived to NOK 35 billion, and we expect at least the same level for Both sellers and buyers seem to accept the current market values and the transaction processes are running more smoothly.

The Norwegian economy has turned around since the financial crisis and is showing a healthy growth. This was the first negative growth in GDP since Now the expansion of the economy is continuing at a moderate pace and seems to have gained a firm footing.

Much of the growth in GDP is because of high public and private consumption. Public consumption increased by 4. Gross fixed investment decreased in Rent levels have not yet recovered from the fall during the financial crisis, but they stabilised during In rents in most of the rental market remained almost unchanged and only the CBD experienced moderate growth.

We expect rent levels to increase in the most attractive segments of the office and retail markets this year. In foreign investors and especially syndicates were active buyers.

NIAM was the most active with its acquisition of Sektor. We expect both foreign and domestic investors of all types to be buying in In Newsec expects CBD offices in Oslo, central offices in Stavanger and retail premises to give the highest returns.

Most of the growth will be due to private consumption. Gross fixed investment will also rise. Most of this rise will result from higher investments in the oil and gas sector and in companies in general.

Employment was fairly stable during Unemployment is now 3. Productivity decreased during the economic downturn, but has now picked up again.

The unemployment rate is forecast to decrease by 0. The twelve-month rise in the Consumer Prices Index was 2. Newsec expects inflation to decrease during the first half of due to the low capacity utilisation in combination with moderate wage increases.

Interest Rate Forecast During — the Norwegian central bank reduced its key policy interest rate to an all-time low of 1. However, since then.

However, the increase in the key policy interest rate will be moved to a later date compared with earlier analyses.

This is mainly because of lower activity among our trading partners. Newsec expects the key policy rate to be 2.

Another positive sign is that investors of almost every kind have returned to the market. Even though syndicates have been the most active, Newsec has also seen property funds, foreign investors, private investors and pension funds participating in trades.

CBD when they are developed. The area around the government offices is another traditional and popular office area.

So far the majority of transactions have concerned properties with long rental contracts and solid tenants.

Newsec expects that properties with shorter rental contracts will also be traded during the coming years. The Norwegian interbank interest rate, NIBOR, has decreased substantially since the peak and is expected to follow the steering rate upwards in coming years.

Newsec expects inflation to remain low during —, thus moderating the increases in short-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates are expected to increase during — due to expectations of future GDP growth.

The combined value of these two transactions is NOK 7. The sluggish investment market came to an end in In property turnover was NOK 14 billion.

Oslo is the capital and largest city in Norway with , inhabitants in the city itself and about a million in the Greater Oslo area.

The total office stock is approximately 8. The office vacancy rate is a result of demand and supply.

In the last two years demand has been reduced compared with the years. In the coming years Newsec expects an increasing demand for offices, stimulated mainly by expanding companies.

Newsec expects the yearly demand for offices to be around , m2 in the next few years. The supply side will fluctuate during the same period.

This year approximately 50, m2 will be completed, but in there will be around , m2 of new office premises completed.

By the end of Newsec believes the office vacancy rate will be reduced to 7. The vast completion of office premises in will then have an impact on the office vacancy rate in , and Newsec believes that vacancy will increase to 8.

After that Newsec expects the vacancy rate to decline moderately. Office Rents The reduced uptake of office premises in recent years, coupled with an increased supply, resulted in falling market rents in all Oslo office segments.

However, rents have now stabilised and a turnaround is expected in , when rents are forecast to start increasing again. The signs are already clear in Oslo CBD, where rents have risen two quarters in a row.

The rise is not huge but substantial. When rents start to rise in the CBD, the rents in the other subsectors will probably rise one or two quarters afterwards.

Office Yields Office yields have continued the downward trend which started in late The trend is largely due to a big yield gap, the improved credit market and increasing competition between banks.

The prime. Newsec expects yields to continue decreasing during — in all office submarkets. New apartments, several museums and the Opera, which is already completed, will also go to shape an exciting and diverse part of the city in the near future.

Fornebu is another district with a lot of building activity, with plans for another 90, m2 of office premises.

In the second half of prices increased slightly. In the prices have continued to rise, but are still well below prices. Newsec expects construction costs to increase rapidly when the market turns, which may be as soon as this year.

Stavanger Office Market Stavanger is situated on the southwest coast of Norway, and the region is one of the fastest-growing in Norway. The Stavanger region is the centre for the Norwegian oil and natural gas industry, and most of the Norwegian oil companies have their head offices here.

The district is known for innovative and value-generating business activities. The infrastructure is well developed, with railways, airport and harbour.

The high activity of recent years has created a greatly expanded demand for office premises, which resulted in low vacancy and increased market rents.

There is a low volume of new buildings under construction, and this may put some pressure on rent levels.

However, there are a large number of projects approved which can be started when the market conditions are right. Newsec believes that market rents will increase slightly throughout and continue upwards in In a rising vacancy rate and an increased number of sublet premises resulted in falling market rents.

The rents stabilised in and Newsec expects market rents to remain fairly stable throughout Newsec has seen recent transactions in Bergen with low initial yields, and estimates prime office yields to be around 6.

Bergen, situated on the west coast, is the second-largest city in Norway. The Greater Bergen region has more than , inhabitants, and population growth is above the national average.

Activity on the investment market has increased and Newsec has seen transactions indicating that yields have decreased during the last 6—12 months.

Based on a prime office yield in Oslo of 5. Bergen is surrounded by sea and mountains, resulting in a limited amount of land available in the downtown area.

To expand the city, a new light railway is being built, whose first section, heading south from downtown Bergen, opened last June. The area around the railway has become an attractive location for commercial real estate.

Due to the combination of workforce reductions and an increased focus on space-efficient office premises, the vacancy rate has increased.

The office vacancy in Bergen is currently 6. Private Consumption and Retail Turnover Consumer confidence in Norway was high during the first seven years of the s, but the economic slowdown and subsequent rise in unemployment created pessimism in the market in and early However, consumer confidence improved again during the second half of and in as a result of the economic recovery.

The disposable income of Norwegian households increased during due to wage increases and low interest rates. In addition, the vast majority of the households that own their homes have floating-rate loans.

In private consumption grew by approximately 3. This rising private consumption is having a positive effect on retail turnover-rents, which are expected to increase during A regulation concerning shopping centres came into effect in July It decrees that new shopping centres larger than 3, m2 4, m2 in Oslo must be located near public transport hubs or in city centres unless regional zoning plans have already approved larger floor space.

The intention is, among other things, to strengthen existing city centres and reduce pollution by limiting traffic. The legislation puts additional downward pressure on the development pipeline, but it may also stimulate further development of high-street retailing in city centres, which happened when a similar law was imposed in Denmark.

Nevertheless there are plans for a new shopping centre and the expansion of existing centres. The project also includes a kindergarten, private residences, offices, water park, cultural centre, restaurants, library, museum and health services.

Supply Norway has one of the largest per capita levels of retail space in the world. In twenty years, the floor space in Norwegian shopping centres has quadrupled, and today more than one third of all Norwegian retail trade takes place in shopping centres.

It is expected that the level of new developments will fall back in coming years as a consequence of the relatively saturated market.

Approximately 20, m2 of new retail stores will be added to the existing centre. In the second half of some other retail properties were sold.

The transaction yield for Coop Obs! Grensen 13 in Oslo prime retail was also sold at a yield of 5.

Based on the transactions that took place during the last quarter of , yields for prime retail properties are currently 5.

Rental Market Rent levels for retail premises are mainly turnover-based. They have followed the pattern of private consumption, falling slightly in and the first part of and stabilising in late and Newsec saw small increases in market rents in late as private consumption grew by about 3.

We expect that rents will continue to rise during Shopping centres have historically had the most stable rent levels, and Newsec expects this to continue.

However, the more centrally a shopping centre is located, the more attractive the premises, the lower the vacancy rates and the higher the rental levels.

Newsec has noted that there are longer void periods in less centrally located shopping centres. As financial markets gradually improved in the second half of , a number of market players entered with great expectations: a backlog of property transactions had been building up in the wake of multiple bankruptcies across all Danish property segments in and However, there may still be several challenges looming ahead, and the recovery process is therefore likely to remain slow and cautious.

However, transaction activity in property investments turned out to be highly segmented, with the general consensus being that Copenhagen is the most important investment property market by far.

Danish GDP picked up in , with 3. For the increase in GDP to continue, other prerequisites of growth are needed, such as sustained growth in exports or stronger consumer spending, which.

Active market players are in pursuit of secure cash flows in particular. In Denmark the current outlook gives us reason to believe that the economic recession is definitely over, but economic growth continues to be slow and tenuous.

For this reason we expect vacancy rates and rent levels to stabilise in the near future. Nichlas SArlin nichlas. Several years of positive growth in consumer spending ended with a 0.

However, the fact that real wages kept increasing in and , coupled with all-time-low interest rates and the effect of new tax cuts introduced in , should be prompting renewed spending.

Consumer spending is expected to have increased by 2. Danish unemployment rates have been very low for several years, hitting a record-low of 1.

This is far below the level normally defining structural unemployment. But unemployment started to rise rapidly at the end of and particularly at the beginning of The unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.

Overall, interest rates remain historically low, but this is bound to change. With the Danish economy recovering only slowly, however, interest rates will not start to increase until economic growth has been restored.

Interest rates are therefore projected to remain flat for most of , followed by an increase in Investment Market In and the beginning of , the Copenhagen office investment market slowed.

The financial crisis drove liquidity out of the market, and due to high loan margins and strict equity requirements investors found it difficult to procure financing.

Nevertheless, the second half of witnessed renewed investor interest in the property investment market. Low returns on liquid assets make the office property investment market more interesting to investors because of the higher returns and still fairly low risk it offers.

Investment demand is still fronted by financially strong investors such as institutional investors and well-consolidated property companies who can match the equity ratios required by finance.

Interest Rate Forecast Ever since the financial crisis started in , prompting a worldwide economic downturn, interest rates have been very low.

Shortterm interest rates dropped immediately at the onset of the crisis, and once the market realised the severity of the financial crisis, the long-term interest rates followed suit.

Because the Danish krone is pegged to the euro, the yield levels of both three-month interest rates and Danish year government bonds tend to follow those of the euro interest rates quite closely.

In , the yields on Danish year government bonds declined more than the yields on comparable euro bonds. The uncertain future of EU countries like Greece and Spain, both struggling with massive public deficits, has made investors seek out safe-haven countries, for instance Germany and the Nordic countries.

However, it seems that finance providers have somewhat eased requirements, which may open up the market to a wider range of investors.

Properties situated in the Copenhagen CBD command the highest office rents, with waterfront locations in particular seeing top rent levels.

The total office stock in the Copenhagen area amounts to some 11 million m2, including about 5 million m2 in the CBD.

This represents a surge of more than 7 percentage points above the low of 3. Companies have tried to cut costs by means of layoffs, which has driven up unemployment and reduced the need for office space.

However, the office vacancy rate is believed to have peaked and is forecast to fall again in Rents Due to the increase in office vacancies, Copenhagen office rent levels came under downward pressure in However, it seems that the earlier reductions made from to sufficed to sustain demand.

As a result, rent levels remained fairly stable in and may even start to rise once economic growth is restored.

Because of the tentative outlook for the Danish economy, however, it is difficult to predict when rent levels will pick up.

Once demand for offices recovers, prime office locations in particular are likely to be coveted and will see an increase in rent levels before secondary locations.

Yields Prime office yields have been fairly stable for the past 12 months and currently stand at 5.

However, changing market conditions have served to widen the gap between prime yields Office Yield. Building Activity Building activity has slowed down dramatically, mainly because the traditional finance providers required higher equity ratios, forcing.

At the same time, climbing vacancy rates and declining rent levels are making new development projects less profitable.

There are several other projects in the pipeline, but most will not be initiated until a significant proportion of the lease premises has been pre-let.

Private Consumption and Retail Turnover Several years of positive growth in private consumption ended in with a 0.

Continuing downward throughout , year-on-year growth hit a low of A sharp drop in housing prices from late to mid eroded the wealth of Danish consumers and naturally curbed private consumption.

As a result, typical consumer patterns and mentality changed, motivating an increase in private savings, which reduced the level of spending even further.

At the same time, saw a relatively high inflation rate, on food and oil prices in particular, which put additional strain on Danish households.

Nevertheless, Danish households have run up debts, and as interest rates will go up at some point in the future, they will be forced to cut budgets, which will inevitably curb private consumption.

Retail sales are closely related to private consumption and the falls in and are therefore a natural consequence of the drop in private consumption.

Despite the subsequent implementation of an expansive fiscal policy and mounting consumer confidence, the weak trend in retail sales seems likely to continue due to an increased savings ratio.

The Danish retail market is characterised by tight legislation, regulating both the size and location of retail areas. As a result, Denmark has a predominance of high-street or in-town shops and relatively few out-of-town shopping centres and retail parks.

The total retail stock in Denmark amounts to some However, one ongoing retail development project is the Flintholm Convenience Shopping.

Centre, scheduled for opening in Apart from a couple of other projects, however, the pipeline has virtually dried up and the supply of retail space is therefore projected to remain nearly constant in the next few years.

However, the turbulence on the financial markets in tandem with the global recession drove up yields to a high of 5. A further decline in yields is predicted in due to the gradually thawing credit market and the projected real economic recovery.

Until , the Danish retail property investment market was dominated by private investors, in particular tax-driven and highleverage limited partnerships.

However, the turbulence in the financial markets largely drove these investors out of the market. The domestic pension funds remain major players in the retail segment, primarily targeting large shopping centres.

International investors have traditionally been important players in the Copenhagen retail investment market, but they too pulled out in the wake of the financial turmoil in early Today, lower property.

However, in step with the economic downturn, demand for retail space weakened, and as a result the number of retail vacancies went up, especially in secondary locations such as out-of-town retail locations and in streets off the high street.

Many local shopping centres have witnessed an increasing vacancy rate whereas major regional shopping centres have been able to maintain relatively low vacancy, mainly because most of their units are leased by retail chains, which have generally remained financially strong despite the crisis.

Retail vacancy rates in the Copenhagen CBD have remained fairly stable because financially strong retail chains have leveraged on the current market conditions to secure high-profile locations at fairly low prices.

In addition, rent renegotiations have become fairly commonplace, causing a slight decline in retail rent levels in However, the modest supply drove up rents again in High-street rents are projected to remain relatively stable in the next 12 to 24 months owing to the lack of new development possibilities and an anticipated increase in demand.

Positive processes in the Estonian economy and expectations related to the adoption of the euro have given the real-estate market an impulse towards stabilisation.

Transaction activity has begun to show a moderate increase, especially in the residential sector. This has encouraged local developers to start a number of new projects.

A few new retail projects were successfully begun during ; in general the retail property sector has remained less touched by the crisis despite a decline in private consumption, and is expected to demonstrate a moderate increase in prime rents for In the second half of a stabilisation process in the office property segment began: vacancies have started to decrease and rents have stopped falling.

Slight rises in rents for quality office premises in good locations may occur in The warehouse and industrial property segment has suffered the worst, but the situation is expected to improve towards the end of In the second half of the change in GDP turned to positive and exports and imports both started to increase, supported by the improving economic situation in the Euro Zone.

In the third quarter of the unemployment rate stopped rising, although long-term unemployment is still going up. Investment activity demonstrated signs of revival in Most acquisitions were related to office properties and made by local investors buying distressed assets.

The most stable cash flow will be produced by retail assets, which will probably attract more attention from investors in The situation in the labour market will stabilise, but with no significant improvements until The situation on the international financial market has started to improve, although it is still jeopardised by the complicated financial positions of some South European countries.

The margins of Estonian commercial banks are not showing a downward tendency and will probably remain unchanged in the first half of , not starting to decline before the second half of the year.

Interest in Estonian Interest Rates. Rising debt remained a challenge in and no significant improvement in this field is expected in Nevertheless market stabilisation started in and adopting the euro may attract some international players in No new office development projects were initiated during and several projects announced earlier were postponed due to lack of potential tenants.

At the end of the total office stock in Tallinn was about , m2, or 1. The investment market situation in was not much different from The number of transactions closed for retail properties during was small.

Prime asking yields were at a level of 8. Future development of yields depends on the dynamics of rents and vacancy rates and improvement of the lending situation.

Because of continued downsizing and cost-cutting by business, demand for office space did not increase in The market will be absorbing the existing office supply; as a result vacancy in welllocated high-quality premises will decrease at the expense of lowquality office premises.

Rents Rental levels continued to decline in the first half of , followed by some stabilisation in the second half of the year.

Rents are currently under pressure mainly in the amortised office buildings. No significant changes in rents are expected in Vacancy Rate Percent.

Building Activity No new development is planned for Developers are waiting for existing vacancies to be absorbed and rents to start rising.

Another problem is the lack of debt financing for office development projects. Continuing low construction costs may favour built-to-suit projects.

The situation in the Latvian economy is gradually stabilising after the deepest recession since the country gained independence in However, recovery will be uneven for different sectors.

The main activity in various branches of industry is created by export growth. After double-digit economic growth in —, Latvia was hit by the global financial and economic crisis.

However, the economy has shown signs of recovery in The Latvian economy recorded three consecutive periods of quarter-on-quarter growth and technically went out of recession.

In annualised terms, output is recovering at a faster pace than previously expected, although the growth rate in and will remain significantly below pre-crisis levels and the unemployment rate will stay in the double-digit zone for years ahead.

Banks expect a further deterioration in the quality of their loan portfolio, which makes them very cautious in taking on new risks.

This, in turn, will not stimulate the real estate market. Several speculative and built-to-suit developments were finished in but there are no plans for new property completion in At the same time, changes in tax policy in will continue to stimulate the shadow economy, whose share has increased considerably in — Due to the impact of the global financial crisis, foreign capital flows into the economy of Latvia have decreased significantly.

Major investors now are from Estonia, Sweden, Denmark and Germany, and Russian investors have also started to show interest.

Investments in the services sector accounted for the largest share of FDI stock in With the economy in the neighbouring Russia already recovering, investors from that country could become more active in Latvia in the future.

Natalja Pirozenko n. As in the other Baltic economies, exports have been central to the recovery in economic activity.

Industrial production is also recovering gradually. However, different situations in different industries means that recovery will continue to be uneven.

The consumer recovery remains more tentative but has the potential to accelerate. Economic Indicators. Retail sales growth in year-on-year terms has shown a positive tendency.

However, total private spending keeps shrinking — although more slowly than before — and is unlikely to improve in the next few quarters.

It will also be influenced by wage cuts and tax changes. Investment Market The peak in institutional investment volumes in real estate was achieved in The volume fell during and there were almost no transactions during — Real estate financing has been frozen since , leaving room for cash buyers only.

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